I've decided to do the WCF first before the ECF because they have a game tomorrow. (In the Philippines)
Let's get to it.
-SAS vs. MEM-
San Antonio Spurs:
The Spurs' Big Three, Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili
photo from My San Antonio
Now, we all know these three guys. Tony, Manu and Timmy have been together for years. They've won championships together. Three to be exact. We also know what each of them brings to the table.
Aside from SAS' big three, they also have other great players which fit into Coach Gregg Popovich's system. Most notably their three point shooters which obliterated the Grizzlies' defense the last game.
The Spurs' will likely still depend on these three players, but don't count them out even if they don't play well. That's how good their system is both offensively and defensively with Coach Popovich at the helm.
Memphis Grizzlies:
The Grizzlies "Big Three", Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph
photo from NBA
Fresh from eliminating OKC, here are the Memphis Grizzlies!
LOL, kidding aside, the saying "defense wins championships" is what you think of when looking at this Grizzlies team. They've got the reigning defensive player of the year in Marc Gasol, one of the best in perimeter defense in Tony Allen, a great veteran defender in Tayshaun Prince who helped shut down Kevin Durant in the second round. The whole team was also first in defense this regular season.
With all of the combined defensive prowess of the team, it is still important to have great offensive players. Let me mention Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph again.
Marc, like his brother Pau, has an array of post moves and that rare ability (for a center) to pass a ball. Sweeping hook shots, mid-range jumpers, you name it! Z-Bo's offensive skill comes in his ability to push people around in the post, getting his looks and making them. Through it all, the Grizzlies' wing players are also known to have offensive skills with players like Jerryd Bayless and somehow, Quincy Pondexter.
But...the emergence of starting PG Mike Conley Jr. in this year's regular season after the Rudy Gay trade takes things to a whole new level for the Grizz, with his offensive capabilities on full display and his ability to make big shots helping the Grizz in close situations.
All in all, the credit goes to Coach Lionel Hollins for being able to make this team a contender.
Finally, the key matchup.
At point guard, we have Tony Parker against Mike Conley.
Tony Parker going up against Mike Conley
photo from Brownsville Herald
The Spurs will go as far as Tony Parker can take them. Wait, don't throw stuff at me just yet and say its Timmy's team. I mean, Tim's nearing 40 years old, still playing at a high level, but let's be serious, he'll get old and the fact is, the NBA is now the league where guards rule (Don't even mention LBJ at forward, he plays point once he gets the ball).
The Grizzlies also share that sentiment. They wouldn't be this successful without Mike Conley's improved play. People already have him in their top 10-15 point guards in the game today. I'm sure ZBo and Marc Gasol can carry the offense and defense but considering how they were blown out of game 1, they would need Mike Conley's best performance to get to the finals.
This matchup is the key to the series, much more so than Timmy taking on Marc and ZBo (which he did amazingly in game 1).
X-FACTOR:
Spurs: Three Point Shooting
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. With Timmy managing to control the paint even with ZBo and Marc, the wings should then focus on shooting the three-ball. If they get hot, consider the series done.
Grizzlies: Being the Grizzlies again.
Being one of the top teams in three point defense and giving up so many threes in game 1, you knew there was something wrong with the Grizz and the fact that they went hero ball sometimes, (the double-edged sword they traded away in Rudy Gay) instead of their passing game really hurt them.
My prediction?
4-2 In favor of the Spurs, barring any epic meltdown like last year's series with OKC.
up next, the IND-MIA series prediction and key matchup!
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